On 7 September 2026 Lloyds published its House Price Index for August, putting the average UK home at £298,468, down 0.2% on the month and 0.4% lower than a year earlier. That is the series’ first annual fall since November 2023, in a month when a 0.2% rise had been expected. Six days earlier Nationwide had published its own August index and said close to the opposite: prices 1.6% higher than a year ago, up 0.2% on the month after seasonal adjustment, with an average price of £275,465.

Both figures accurately describe the data each lender holds. Neither is the market. The two percentage point gap between them is inside the range these series routinely disagree by, and the more useful information sits below the Lloyds headline, in a regional table where Northern Ireland is up 6.9% and the South East is down 1.6%.

What did the two indices actually report for August 2026?

The Halifax House Price Index became the Lloyds House Price Index from July 2026 with the same methodology, so the series is unbroken under its new name.

Why do Lloyds and Nationwide disagree about house prices in August 2026?

Each index is built from the lender’s own mortgage approvals. Lloyds Banking Group and Nationwide lend to different customers in different proportions across different regions, so each sample carries the fingerprint of its own book. The price levels show the same effect: a gap of more than £23,000 between the two averages for the same country in the same month, entirely down to the mix of properties each lender finances.

Three further mechanisms widen the gap. Both indices are seasonally adjusted, but with different models, and a small modelling difference can flip a monthly figure from slightly positive to slightly negative. Both exclude cash buyers, who account for roughly a third of purchases. And both are measured at the approval stage in a thin market: HMRC counted 96,710 seasonally adjusted residential transactions in July 2026, down 2% on June and 1% below July 2025, and low volumes make monthly averages noisy and prone to revision.

Why does the regional split matter more than the national number?

Because the national figure averages places moving in opposite directions, and the result describes nowhere.

The pattern is north up, south down. Northern Ireland at +6.9% and the South East at -1.6% are more than eight percentage points apart, and the Lloyds national figure of -0.4% is true of neither. It fits the regional investment trends this site examined in August, where higher-yielding northern cities were already drawing capital that southern price levels had priced out.

Andrew Asaam, Lloyds Mortgages Director, said: “The housing market has been operating against a more challenging backdrop in recent months, with global developments feeding through to higher inflation and borrowing costs.”

What does a flat market mean for landlords facing the April 2027 tax rise?

A flat or gently falling market removes the cushion that used to forgive a thin yield. When prices rose several percent a year, capital growth did the work; in the southern regions Lloyds now reports as negative, the return has to come from rent.

Tax makes that harder from April 2027. The Government confirmed that income tax rates on property income rise by two percentage points from that date, a measure announced at the 2025 Budget. The rumoured National Insurance levy on rental income was not introduced. Alongside it, Making Tax Digital for Income Tax became mandatory from April 2026 for landlords and sole traders with qualifying income over £50,000, and extends to those over £30,000 from April 2027. Both changes point landlords toward yield arithmetic rather than price forecasting.

What are buyers weighing against each other right now?

Two things pulling in different directions. The Bank of England’s Money and Credit release on 1 September 2026 recorded 56,053 mortgage approvals for house purchase in July, the lowest since January 2024 and down from a revised 58,215 in June. Fewer competing buyers is good news for anyone still looking.

Against that, borrowing costs are not moving in the buyer’s favour. Moneyfacts figures for 2 to 3 September show the average two-year fix at 5.59% and the average five-year fix at 5.63%. The cheapest homebuyer two-year fix, 4.47% from Santander, sits more than a percentage point below the average. But Moneyfacts’ Rachel Springall also noted swap rates at 30-day highs and the 10-year gilt yield above 5.2%, its highest since 2008, the pressure that tends to pull best buys back up. Bank Rate is 3.75%, held on 30 July, with the next decision due on 17 September 2026.

Is a two point gap between indices actually news?

This is the case against the headline. A 0.4% fall on one index and a 1.6% rise on another describe the same market with two different rulers, and a two point difference is not unusual for these series. Nor does a first annual fall since November 2023 tell a buyer what a specific house in Exeter or Torbay is worth this month. The decision that matters for a landlord is the yield on a specific property against a specific mortgage rate and tax position. The decision that matters for a buyer is what comparable homes on the same street actually sold for, which Land Registry data will show two months later with no lender’s mix in the way.

Frequently asked questions

Which index is right, Lloyds or Nationwide?
Both, for their own samples. Each measures its own approvals with its own seasonal model and excludes cash buyers. The ONS and Land Registry index, built from completed sales, is the closest thing to a whole-market answer.

Does the first annual fall since November 2023 mean prices are now falling?
It means Lloyds’ national average was 0.4% lower than in August 2025. The same release shows Northern Ireland up 6.9% and the North East up 2.7%, so prices are falling in some regions and rising in others.

How much does the April 2027 tax change cost a landlord?
Income tax rates on property income rise by two percentage points, so £10,000 of taxable rental profit carries an extra £200 a year, and across a portfolio it adds up.

Should a buyer wait for lower rates?
The data does not support a confident answer. Approvals are at their lowest since January 2024, but swap rates and gilt yields were rising into September, which pushes fixed rates up. The next Bank Rate decision is 17 September 2026.

The August indices are best read for what they are: two lenders describing two customer bases, each with a different regional tilt, in a market thin enough for a fraction of a percentage point to separate a headline fall from a headline rise. The regional table carries more information than either national figure, and the sold prices in a particular postcode carry more than the regional table.

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